“The best predictor of performance is performance itself” – Andy Coggan
I love graphs. I love charts. They’re graphic representations of numbers that pertain to the things that matter in our lives: money, productivity, and CTL.
Where would we be without Performance Manager Chart? Sometimes I regret explaining to clients how the PMC works. Ever since it was invented, online coaching has never been as easy or accountable.
It’s fascinating to see that blue line steadily rise up, to see the little peaks formed by that pink line, and those whoopsie-dips that the yellow line makes. There isn’t a single week that one or two athletes message me to look at their PMC (as if I hadn’t already), either expressing alarm about how low their CTL is or how come their TSB is making like a submarine. So I will oblige them (hey, maybe I did miss something there…), check the charts, check the logs, and ask them a very simple question: “How do you feel?”
Answers will vary, but revolve around the following variations.
“Great! My legs feel good!”
“Tired. I hate you.”
“Fucked. But bring it!”
Beyond the verbal expressions, I’m actually doing a little bit of psychology here based on how well I know the athlete. Is this guy pumping up his chest but not admitting that he needs a break? Is this lady just doing her princess act but, in all actuality, really locked and loaded for another round? Athletes are snowflakes; every one is different. One thing that all Alpha athletes in common, though, is this: they work pretty damn hard. And because they do, the PMC is a graphic representation of all that work they put in.
There. Did you see what its biggest shortcoming is? PMC is an estimate of your current fitness (and fatigue). It tells you how much you can suffer, hell yeah. What it DOESN’T tell you is how FAST you are now.
Races aren’t won by how much TSS you can log, how many watts you can generate, how many hours you can train, or how high your Threshold Heart Rate is.
They’re won by finishing faster than everyone else, period. Let’s not miss the forest for the trees, guys. I know you’re all working your asses off, but never forget: all that work you’re putting in is to make you go faster, harder, and longer than you ever thought possible.
It’s really simple (which is not to say it’s easy) to find out if you’re really improving.
Test yourself. Test yourself. Weigh yourself.
In all 3 sports, choose a particular length that closely simulates your Target Race. It doesn’t make sense to do a full-distance Time Trial as that would entail a huge recovery cost, not to mention it wouldn’t tell you much at the start of training other than that you’re still un-fit.
For Olympic and half-IM swims, I like multiple 200s, 250s, and 500s with a short RI. Depending on where I am in my swim fitness, I’ll do 25% of a workout in these tests, or up to 80%, as I get closer to race day. The key word is “threshold”; the pace I can sustain for the duration of the set, like I would on race day. If everything’s working out, I will either see a few seconds’ improvement or need less rest.
For the bike, you either have a flat/rolling time trial or an uphill. Both entail a particular kind of suffering, but you choose the one that suits your race conditions. I’ll never go below 20” or 20km for a flat time trial. It has to be long enough to force you to be conscious about pacing, cadence, and a smooth, steady effort. For road races or hilly triathlons, I have several climbs I’ve learned to love. After a good warmup of an hour or two, I’ll start at the foot of the climb and work my way up. It’s best to do these things by yourself, as having a companion can trigger an adrenaline spike and make you go up faster than you normally could alone.
Finally, for the run I have short and long Time Trials. Maybe you’ve seen them in your program: Km repeats at Lactate Threshold (10k Race Pace), or open road races of 10-15km. These things hurt, but the beauty of them is that after a handful of them in a block, you’ll feel like your lungs got bigger by 10%.
What should you be looking for in these tests?
How long it took you to finish them, of course, with some additional info.
On the bike, your Functional Threshold Heart Rate (FTHR) and your Functional Threshold Power (FTP – if you’re using a power meter).
On the run, your average pace/speed, and your Lactate Threshold Heart Rate (LTHR).As you get stronger, you should be able to notice several improvements:
- Your average pace/power improves for the same Lactate Threshold/Functional Threshold Heart Rate
- You can recover faster between race-pace efforts.
- Your sub-threshold power/pace improves; workouts seem “effortless”
- Your can speed up/slow down at will; I call this your engine’s revvability, similar to how a race car engine can quickly spin up and down the tachometer.
One more thing you should log: your morning weight.
There are many articles on power-to-weight, so there’s no need to rewrite them. Assuming you have a solid aerobic base, improving your PWR is the single, best thing you can do to get FASTER, and to sustain that pace LONGER. It’s not much of a factor in the swim since you’re buoyant, but PWR coupled with regular TT data will tell you how well you will do on race day. If you don’t believe me, the next time you ride or run, wear a backpack with about 10 pounds. Try going at your threshold pace/power and see how hard it feels. See how your HR rises. Chances are, aside from making you slower, you won’t be able to go your normal test distance without needing a breather.
If you want to get faster, lose the puppy fat. It’s tough to say what your ideal race weight should be, but unless you’re into single digit body fat percentage territory, it’s safe to say that you should probably go easy on the cookies.
Personally, if you can see your ribs through your skin, if your ass hurts to sit on a hard surface, if your cheekbones are looking like Angelina Jolie’s… then Congratulations! You are now at your killer race weight.
And to quantify how much “faster” you are, log your tests!
Training Peaks doesn’t have a graph for that, so you’ll have to make your own with Excel.
Things to include in your Time Trial graph: Weight, Time, Distance, Time Improvement (from previous TT) Average Speed, Average HR, Average Power, Average Cadence, Test Course Description, Ambient Temperature, and your Time Trial equipment. You want to be as scientific as possible, using the same variables so you can pinpoint specific areas for improvement.
Regular Time Trials will also help you determine the ideal wheels and setup for your bike, and even the racing flat that will work for you.
Crunching the numbers to see if you’re “aerobically coupled” is also a useful exercise, if you’re mathematically inclined.
So keep referring to your PMC to gauge how hard you’re working, but don’t mistake those lines as 100% accurate predictors of performances.
As much as I like my PMC, I love my Time Trial charts even more. Unless I’m hit with some bad luck or have a moment of stupid on race day, I’ve never had a race performance that didn’t jibe with what my TT charts told me.
Lose weight. Get fit. Don’t be afraid to test. Happily, the three things work together. As you get fitter, you’ll lose the fat, which makes you more eager to test yourself. It’s a virtuous cycle.
“It never gets easier. You just get faster.” – Greg Lemond